Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -150 UIC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +30 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -3.8 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -0.6 (-29.4) | 128.3 (-18.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -3.2 (-26.8) | 126.0 (-16.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.7 (-27.3) | 127.1 (-17.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -2.6 (-27.4) | 130.2 (-20.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#146) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#201) | 1.94 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#111) | 2.83 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#125) | 0.615 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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