Betting Lines
| Spread | RMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | RMU -175 JAX +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | RMU -19.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RMU -9.1 (-18.1) | 137.7 (+1.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RMU -10.9 (-19.9) | 143.0 (-4.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RMU -10.9 (-19.9) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RMU -11.3 (-20.3) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RMU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | -10.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#320) | -1.04 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#321) | -1.45 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#340) | 0.388 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RMU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 27.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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