Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | XAV -1700 BRY +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +25 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -14.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+43.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -12.2 (+12.8) | 141.4 (+33.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -10.3 (+14.7) | 134.2 (+40.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.6 (+13.4) | 133.9 (+41.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.6 (+14.4) | 139.2 (+35.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#54) | 0.8 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#190) | 0.50 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#155) | 1.57 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#150) | 0.498 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.3% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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