Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +200 ALST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +15 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -3.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.8 (-12.2) | 155.9 (+5.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.9 (-13.1) | 153.8 (+7.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.2 (-13.8) | 154.4 (+6.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.9 (-13.1) | 155.3 (+5.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#354) | -10.3 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#284) | -1.20 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#281) | -1.80 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#283) | 0.469 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.4% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 26.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 37.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.7% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 59.7% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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