Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -100000 USI +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -28.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -23.8 (-5.8) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -23.4 (-5.4) | 146.3 (-4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -26.4 (-8.4) | 147.6 (-5.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -27.2 (-9.2) | 147.0 (-5.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#19) | -8.1 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#98) | -4.36 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#85) | -7.76 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#62) | 0.314 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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