Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | UNC -170 ARK +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -8.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -5.9 (+9.1) | 155.0 (+4.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -5.9 (+9.1) | 150.0 (+9.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -5.5 (+9.5) | 152.1 (+6.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -6.0 (+9.0) | 154.3 (+4.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#25) | 3.1 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#144) | -0.22 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#143) | -1.10 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#187) | 0.479 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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