Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UGA -440 WIN +335 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -3.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -3.4 (+5.6) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -2.5 (+6.5) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -2.4 (+6.6) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -1.7 (+7.3) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#202) | 1.9 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#229) | -0.22 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#232) | -0.27 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#118) | 0.545 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 42.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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