Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -480 MRMK +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -2.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.2 (+3.8) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -3.4 (+4.6) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.5 (+5.5) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -1.6 (+6.4) | 142.0 (+8.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Home | 18-0 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#227) | 2.3 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#200) | 1.60 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#198) | 2.47 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#154) | 0.556 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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