Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | BEL -305 MONM +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +9 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -5.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -1.5 (-7.5) | 156.5 (+20.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -4.2 (-4.8) | 154.4 (+22.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -3.3 (-5.7) | 153.5 (+23.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -4.6 (-4.4) | 153.5 (+23.5) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#272) | 0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#175) | 1.14 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#205) | 2.27 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#131) | 0.554 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 41.9% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 14.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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