And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
39–11 on winners spread MAE 11.6 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wright State @ Purdue +20.8 155.1 87% 52–96 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Duke +19.5 139.0 89% 52–92 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Kentucky +27.1 148.6 91% 55–80 ✓
Colgate @ Cornell +11.9 147.4 77% 68–78 ✓
Austin Peay @ Purdue Fort Wayne — — — 60–65 —
Winthrop @ Middle Tennessee +13.9 140.5 81% 65–76 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Chattanooga +23.7 137.5 89% 62–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Norfolk State +14.7 131.6 88% 74–91 ✓
Hampton @ Towson — — — 54–78 —
Boston University @ Northeastern +3.9 135.9 67% 48–49 ✓
James Madison @ Eastern Kentucky +13.8 138.7 81% 79–78 ✗
Creighton @ Nebraska +4.8 139.4 69% 77–69 ✗
South Carolina State @ Georgia +12.3 143.5 84% 60–76 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Cincinnati +12.1 137.8 82% 66–89 ✓
Georgia State @ Richmond -3.5 147.8 50% 78–94 ✗
Lafayette @ Pennsylvania +8.4 158.8 77% 57–85 ✓
NJIT @ Rutgers +4.6 128.9 69% 61–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Pittsburgh -3.9 133.1 53% 51–59 ✗
Jacksonville @ UCF +10.1 145.6 77% 54–63 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Troy +1.3 129.5 54% 65–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Iona +2.5 148.0 63% 74–82 ✓
Yale @ Siena -7.7 139.7 25% 82–54 ✓
Lehigh @ Monmouth +17.8 145.5 87% 75–85 ✓
South Alabama @ Alabama +18.3 149.5 84% 68–73 ✓
Saint Louis @ Memphis +8.6 146.1 79% 74–90 ✓
Virginia @ Houston +21.0 138.8 86% 47–67 ✓
Southern @ Rice +1.4 137.5 63% 63–81 ✓
Murray State @ Illinois State +7.2 149.5 64% 77–65 ✗
Alabama State @ Iowa State +11.5 145.2 82% 60–68 ✓
Tarleton State @ Wichita State +8.5 130.6 80% 51–65 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern +22.6 144.0 89% 67–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago +20.0 145.5 87% 56–92 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington -6.3 142.2 19% 80–71 ✓
NC State @ Central Connecticut -5.9 146.6 20% 79–65 ✓
High Point @ Notre Dame +19.4 137.6 89% 61–70 ✓
North Carolina @ Charleston +10.2 165.8 80% 94–83 ✗
American University @ Georgetown -4.3 137.4 51% 57–79 ✗
Denver @ UTSA -7.6 138.9 37% 64–78 ✗
Seton Hall @ Michigan +4.9 136.7 64% 67–65 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Iowa +29.8 148.3 90% 69–86 ✓
Nevada @ Santa Clara +12.5 155.2 81% 74–96 ✓
North Dakota State @ Arizona +19.2 140.3 88% 45–97 ✓
BYU @ Oregon +6.6 140.2 74% 81–49 ✗
Jackson State @ California Baptist +14.8 141.1 85% 64–77 ✓
George Washington @ Cal State Fullerton +6.6 142.7 75% 59–74 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M +25.3 140.9 90% 39–73 ✓
Denver @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -4.0 136.7 38% 67–69 ✗
Central Connecticut @ UMass Lowell +5.1 136.8 76% 53–77 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ UTSA +0.9 132.6 47% 57–60 ✓
Merrimack @ Army +3.3 132.3 62% 51–74 ✓
Boston College @ Rhode Island +3.5 136.4 59% 49–57 ✓
Long Island University @ UConn +36.7 151.3 91% 40–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.