Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +16 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -1.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.8 (+17.8) | 146.0 (+26.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -3.5 (+19.5) | 147.8 (+24.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.5 (+18.5) | 144.3 (+27.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#309) | 4.2 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#306) | 0.37 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#312) | 0.53 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#302) | 0.250 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 46.2% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 2.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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