Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | RICE -700 SOU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICE +18 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | RICE -2.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -2.1 (+15.9) | 141.8 (+2.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICE -2.3 (+15.7) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICE -1.4 (+16.6) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICE -2.5 (+15.5) | 139.2 (+4.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#291) | 1.7 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#183) | 0.79 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#185) | 0.64 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#81) | 0.613 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 11.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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