Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -2000 GWEB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +40 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -16.4 (+23.6) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -16.3 (+23.7) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -19.5 (+20.5) | 139.0 (+5.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -19.3 (+20.7) | 141.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#36) | -1.5 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#25) | -0.58 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#29) | -0.76 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.875 (#13) | 0.562 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.