Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ND -3500 HPU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ND -19.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -17.4 (-8.4) | 139.4 (-8.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -19.4 (-10.4) | 137.6 (-6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -18.4 (-9.4) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#181) | -9.4 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#145) | -0.48 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#140) | -0.75 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#159) | 0.500 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 9.1% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.3% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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