Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -1600 ALST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -14.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -9.0 (-1.0) | 140.1 (-12.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -9.7 (-1.7) | 144.1 (-16.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -11.5 (-3.5) | 145.2 (-17.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -11.0 (-3.0) | 147.3 (-19.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#183) | -3.7 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#121) | -2.26 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#124) | -4.06 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#109) | 0.229 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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