Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +155 JXST -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -4.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.5 (+2.5) | 131.7 (+2.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.3 (+2.7) | 129.5 (+4.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.7 (+0.3) | 128.4 (+5.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#180) | 5.8 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#217) | 0.35 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#217) | 0.76 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#159) | 0.750 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 21.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 15.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 66.0% | 38.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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