Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF -150 GW +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -13.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -6.2 (+8.8) | 142.2 (-9.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -6.6 (+8.4) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -8.6 (+6.4) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#108) | 0.2 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#272) | 0.14 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#257) | 0.22 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#284) | 0.694 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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