Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -29.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | CONN -4500 LIU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +53 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -36.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -36.7 (+16.3) | 151.3 (-18.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -38.7 (+14.3) | 151.9 (-18.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -25.8 (+27.2) | 150.8 (-17.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | CONN 114 – 61 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#5) | -11.4 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#134) | -0.62 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#137) | -0.88 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#251) | 0.542 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 9.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 34.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 56.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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