Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +8 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.2 (+11.2) | 133.5 (-23.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.9 (+11.9) | 133.1 (-23.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.7 (+12.7) | 132.6 (-22.6) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-11 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#308) | 3.8 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#341) | -0.69 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#340) | -0.87 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#284) | 0.000 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 33.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 29.7% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.8% | 39.3% |
Game Analysis
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