Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Over |
| Money | COFC +550 UNC -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +11 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -12.9 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -10.2 (-21.2) | 165.8 (+11.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.4 (-19.4) | 164.1 (+12.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -8.7 (-19.7) | 162.4 (+14.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | UNC 102 – 86 COFC |
| Nov 25, 2020 | UNC 79 – 60 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#96) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#50) | 0.87 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#50) | 1.17 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#100) | 0.724 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 52.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 11.6% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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