Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -3300 COFC +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -16.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+44.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.5 (+3.5) | 141.9 (+46.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.3 (+5.7) | 145.4 (+42.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2021 | UNC 94 – 83 COFC |
| Nov 25, 2020 | UNC 79 – 60 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#161) | -2.3 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#89) | 0.43 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#104) | 0.55 (#115) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 47.9% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 32.8% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 28.0% |
| DRB% | 61.0% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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