Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -7.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.8 (+5.8) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -4.0 (+6.0) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.0 (+5.0) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#245) | 4.5 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#162) | 0.67 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#165) | 0.96 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#206) | 0.333 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 16.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 39.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 32.2% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 11.5% |
Game Analysis
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