Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | CIN -2400 AAMU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +23 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -11.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -12.6 (+10.4) | 142.0 (+13.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -9.1 (+13.9) | 139.8 (+15.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -12.1 (+10.9) | 137.8 (+17.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -11.6 (+11.4) | 140.1 (+14.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 61.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#173) | -1.1 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#83) | 0.15 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#86) | 0.15 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.812 (#16) | 0.281 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 84.1% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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