Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -475 DEN +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -10.0 (+24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -5.0 (+19.0) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -7.6 (+21.6) | 138.9 (+3.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -6.8 (+20.8) | 137.4 (+4.6) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UTSA 84 – 79 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#354) | 4.5 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#328) | 0.67 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#319) | 0.96 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#159) | 0.333 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 22.9% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 16.1% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 39.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 32.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 11.5% |
Game Analysis
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