Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -1.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -0.9 (+2.1) | 124.3 (-7.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -0.1 (+2.9) | 130.4 (-13.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.9 (+2.1) | 132.6 (-15.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -1.6 (+1.4) | 128.3 (-11.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#354) | -7.1 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#328) | -1.96 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#319) | -2.69 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#159) | 0.229 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 22.9% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.5% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 27.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 39.9% |
Game Analysis
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