Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | UK -2800 MSM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UK -29.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -21.7 (+3.3) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -22.2 (+2.8) | 146.5 (-11.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -27.1 (-2.1) | 148.6 (-13.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -26.0 (-1.0) | 146.0 (-11.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#34) | -10.3 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#202) | -0.65 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#200) | -0.90 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#132) | 0.458 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 46.3% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 42.9% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 9.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.