Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +52 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -22.5 (+29.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -15.8 (+36.2) | 143.1 (-1.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -19.2 (+32.8) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -20.5 (+31.5) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#6) | 2.6 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#123) | 0.73 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#117) | 1.13 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#215) | 0.487 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.08 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 32.1% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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