Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +32 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -12.6 (-44.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -6.0 (-38.0) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -6.3 (-38.3) | 142.2 (-12.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -6.6 (-38.6) | 140.2 (-10.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -7.9 (-39.9) | 138.7 (-8.7) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#27) | -2.7 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#92) | 1.13 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#88) | 1.67 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#78) | 0.750 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 42.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 38.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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