Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARMY +23 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ARMY -4.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARMY -3.4 (+19.6) | 132.2 (-7.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARMY -3.3 (+19.7) | 132.3 (-7.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARMY -4.3 (+18.7) | 129.1 (-4.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#190) | 5.3 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#136) | 2.03 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#126) | 3.10 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#120) | 0.738 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 31.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 38.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 37.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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