Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -9.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -5.7 (-3.3) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -6.3 (-2.7) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -5.5 (-3.5) | 145.8 (+5.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#347) | 6.3 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#228) | -0.53 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#216) | -0.48 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#258) | 0.583 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 10.0% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.27 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 30.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 5.7% | 10.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 26.7% |
| DRB% | 51.3% | 56.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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