I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–13 on winners spread MAE 9.4 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ Kansas +10.8 143.2 85% 50–95 ✓
Nebraska @ Creighton +13.3 146.3 83% 74–98 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -2.4 143.6 46% 76–63 ✓
George Washington @ Delaware +3.2 145.0 65% 65–68 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield -3.1 146.5 35% 70–42 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Davidson +7.0 139.5 74% 45–77 ✓
Marist @ Canisius — — — 72–81 —
South Carolina State @ Charleston +11.4 138.9 87% 63–90 ✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +7.3 146.9 70% 66–70 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +10.1 133.4 85% 54–70 ✓
Milwaukee @ Kansas State — — — 75–76 —
Iowa State @ Iowa +22.4 153.3 90% 77–105 ✓
Nevada @ Grand Canyon +6.1 129.7 73% 77–87 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +1.6 129.9 60% 67–74 ✓
Marquette @ UCLA +9.4 144.7 79% 60–69 ✓
San José State @ Saint Mary's — — — 61–96 —
Florida @ Florida State +2.1 141.7 55% 71–83 ✓
Wofford @ South Florida -2.8 140.9 41% 56–58 ✗
Tennessee State @ IU Indianapolis — — — 66–69 —
Florida Gulf Coast @ Miami +16.2 128.9 84% 66–62 ✗
Notre Dame @ Kentucky +4.4 140.9 68% 64–63 ✗
Kansas City @ Toledo +15.6 139.4 85% 57–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Tennessee +7.7 126.3 74% 56–65 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College -4.4 148.2 36% 101–63 ✓
Stony Brook @ Bryant +20.2 158.7 90% 72–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina +16.2 148.0 88% 67–73 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas Tech +20.4 129.6 89% 57–77 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Western Michigan +4.4 139.7 62% 67–57 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulane +18.0 137.8 90% 56–67 ✓
La Salle @ Drexel +11.2 129.5 83% 58–48 ✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville -0.4 147.5 54% 67–80 ✗
Texas A&M @ TCU -2.7 134.2 36% 55–73 ✗
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +1.3 133.6 38% 76–75 ✗
Mississippi State @ Dayton -2.5 128.7 41% 82–85 ✗
Utah Tech @ Denver -0.8 145.8 44% 73–70 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Wichita State -1.0 147.6 45% 67–64 ✓
Idaho @ Cal State Bakersfield +4.3 131.2 66% 66–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ North Carolina A&T -4.3 152.2 35% 104–98 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Pittsburgh +8.6 152.4 78% 50–67 ✓
Wyoming @ Utah Valley -4.1 147.8 33% 93–88 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -7.8 150.2 26% 95–77 ✓
UAB @ East Tennessee State -5.7 132.0 21% 65–61 ✓
Valparaiso @ Central Michigan +3.3 146.6 63% 79–84 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount +4.6 138.7 76% 76–81 ✓
Old Dominion @ VCU +8.3 144.7 78% 54–77 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +9.8 142.2 80% 88–92 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Ole Miss +12.2 141.0 84% 58–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UL Monroe +3.2 142.1 70% 55–66 ✓
Florida A&M @ Oklahoma +14.5 154.6 85% 54–85 ✓
Florida International @ North Florida -5.0 150.9 46% 77–80 ✗
Memphis @ Auburn -7.2 145.4 22% 71–74 ✗
UTEP @ Arizona +17.3 142.4 89% 61–69 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan -6.1 144.4 35% 77–87 ✗
Utah @ BYU +5.6 143.6 76% 64–82 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State -0.4 131.9 51% 52–53 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.