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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNC Greensboro
@
Coppin State
|
-0.2 | 141.9 | 47% | 80–86 | ✗ |
Troy
@
North Alabama
|
— | — | — | 62–57 | — |
Jackson State
@
Ole Miss
|
— | — | — | 45–80 | — |
Portland
@
Oregon State
|
+8.2 | 147.4 | 72% | 87–86 | ✗ |
Kansas City
@
Minnesota
|
+14.5 | 140.0 | 81% | 61–90 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Northern Arizona
|
-11.7 | 138.0 | 16% | 74–50 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Western Kentucky
|
— | — | — | 84–86 | — |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+0.5 | 137.3 | 47% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
San Francisco
|
+20.0 | 149.1 | 90% | 62–107 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
South Dakota State
|
+7.7 | 136.7 | 76% | 75–77 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Arizona State
|
+5.5 | 142.7 | 64% | 80–68 | ✗ |
Northeastern
@
Massachusetts
|
— | — | — | 79–94 | — |
North Texas
@
West Virginia
|
+8.2 | 144.6 | 78% | 50–62 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Seton Hall
|
+10.4 | 155.1 | 85% | 68–77 | ✓ |
App State
@
Charlotte
|
+3.4 | 132.2 | 59% | 61–57 | ✗ |
Rider
@
Manhattan
|
— | — | — | 82–64 | — |
South Dakota State
@
North Dakota
|
-6.1 | 148.1 | 28% | 74–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.