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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abilene Christian
@
Texas Tech
|
+8.4 | 129.2 | 79% | 44–51 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Arizona
|
+15.4 | 135.0 | 86% | 60–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
VCU
|
+19.7 | 137.2 | 88% | 59–95 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Hofstra
|
+5.9 | 138.3 | 74% | 67–72 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Valparaiso
|
+5.2 | 134.5 | 64% | 58–80 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Charleston
|
-9.0 | 138.2 | 25% | 84–72 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Evansville
|
+1.4 | 143.4 | 56% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Arkansas State
|
+11.6 | 140.4 | 86% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
UL Monroe
|
+11.3 | 141.6 | 83% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Bellarmine
|
-0.1 | 137.8 | 43% | 77–68 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Florida State
|
+1.3 | 139.1 | 52% | 67–69 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Nebraska
|
+8.6 | 156.8 | 76% | 75–64 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+9.2 | 142.3 | 83% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Baylor
|
+31.3 | 158.9 | 90% | 52–83 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Texas
|
+17.6 | 133.9 | 87% | 53–74 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Arkansas
|
+30.6 | 153.4 | 91% | 44–79 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Utah Valley
|
-2.6 | 147.6 | 34% | 81–71 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Tulane
|
+9.6 | 127.2 | 77% | 38–58 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Lipscomb
|
+3.5 | 147.7 | 67% | 74–80 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Xavier
|
+7.9 | 156.1 | 79% | 77–99 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Missouri
|
+13.0 | 144.2 | 84% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Cal Poly
|
-5.8 | 132.3 | 20% | 76–69 | ✓ |
California
@
Pepperdine
|
+8.4 | 140.9 | 80% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Washington State
|
+7.9 | 128.4 | 81% | 58–61 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
UCLA
|
— | — | — | 56–83 | — |
Boise State
@
BYU
|
+1.6 | 136.6 | 55% | 74–70 | ✗ |
Denver
@
Wyoming
|
+18.8 | 151.0 | 87% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Northwestern
|
+16.0 | 155.9 | 84% | 71–70 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Oregon
|
+16.0 | 142.0 | 85% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Washington
|
-0.7 | 130.1 | 44% | 41–73 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Buffalo
|
— | — | — | 64–81 | — |
LSU New Orleans
@
Jacksonville
|
+10.2 | 141.4 | 83% | 70–77 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
East Carolina
|
+16.0 | 141.7 | 87% | 67–73 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
South Dakota
|
-2.0 | 138.0 | 37% | 75–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.