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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–11 on winners spread MAE 10.8 46 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Boise State @ Virginia Tech	+5.3	147.2	69%	75–82	✓
Stanford @ Michigan	+7.0	169.3	74%	78–83	✓
NC State @ Vanderbilt	-16.1	139.0	7%	84–78	✓
BYU @ Arizona State	-21.9	136.2	2%	77–49	✓
Texas A&M @ Florida Atlantic	-6.9	149.8	27%	89–96	✗
Kansas City @ UNC Greensboro	+8.0	150.0	77%	64–76	✓
Mercer @ Tennessee State	+0.0	144.3	50%	60–59	✗
Bryant @ Xavier	+14.2	130.2	90%	75–100	✓
Arkansas @ North Carolina	+9.4	158.1	80%	72–87	✓
Jacksonville State @ UTSA	+3.4	146.5	62%	77–62	✗
Charleston Southern @ Wake Forest	+23.2	157.1	98%	56–71	✓
Delaware @ Brown	-11.9	150.9	14%	67–59	✓
Penn State @ Butler	+2.0	145.0	57%	78–88	✓
Manhattan @ UConn	+20.9	145.7	97%	60–90	✓
Nicholls @ Mississippi State	+19.8	142.2	96%	61–74	✓
Lipscomb @ UNC Asheville	-21.1	161.7	3%	86–75	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Ball State	+16.0	159.2	93%	74–92	✓
Evansville @ Chattanooga	+0.4	133.6	51%	85–77	✗
Indiana State @ Toledo	-3.5	173.8	38%	76–74	✓
Alabama State @ North Carolina A&T	-5.2	165.0	32%	88–73	✓
Long Island University @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+10.5	153.2	83%	83–68	✗
Monmouth @ Belmont	-4.4	165.4	34%	93–84	✓
SE Louisiana @ Western Michigan	-1.2	144.5	45%	67–68	✗
Delaware State @ Longwood	+20.6	140.6	97%	82–84	✓
Oregon State @ Pittsburgh	+17.5	154.8	94%	51–76	✓
Oklahoma @ USC	-9.6	142.2	19%	72–70	✓
Memphis @ Villanova	+5.2	146.9	68%	63–79	✓
Montana @ Houston	+28.3	130.9	99%	44–79	✓
Jacksonville @ Robert Morris	+18.3	148.9	95%	74–65	✗
Davidson @ Saint Mary's	-2.9	120.3	40%	55–89	✗
Utah Tech @ Washington State	+12.9	153.4	88%	53–93	✓
Merrimack @ Samford	+3.6	145.6	63%	71–79	✓
UC Irvine @ Rice	-18.3	151.3	5%	83–68	✓
Canisius @ Wofford	-1.8	162.8	43%	76–67	✓
Lafayette @ Pennsylvania	+17.3	139.3	94%	72–74	✓
UIC @ Middle Tennessee	-3.7	121.3	37%	70–40	✓
Winthrop @ Georgia	+3.0	139.5	61%	69–78	✓
Grambling @ Troy	+21.9	155.3	98%	67–80	✓
Baylor @ Florida	-1.9	168.7	43%	95–91	✓
Iowa State @ Virginia Tech	-16.6	148.2	7%	62–71	✗
Southern Indiana @ Duke	+29.2	149.1	100%	62–80	✓
UC San Diego @ Idaho	-14.6	148.5	9%	70–73	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Lamar	+7.0	155.6	74%	65–83	✓
Seton Hall @ Iowa	+2.5	151.5	59%	72–85	✓
Michigan @ Texas Tech	-2.2	144.1	42%	57–73	✗
New Mexico @ Pepperdine	-6.7	154.1	27%	90–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.