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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
43–6 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charleston
@
North Carolina
|
+16.2 | 143.1 | 93% | 86–102 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Kentucky
|
+15.3 | 150.1 | 92% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Temple
|
+7.6 | 147.5 | 75% | 64–68 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Dayton
|
+17.2 | 132.6 | 94% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Hofstra
|
+15.5 | 143.4 | 92% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Coppin State
|
+15.1 | 150.1 | 91% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
George Mason
|
+14.5 | 131.4 | 91% | 69–83 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Purdue
|
+31.1 | 142.9 | 100% | 44–63 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
California
|
+0.3 | 145.0 | 51% | 63–54 | ✗ |
West Virginia
@
Pittsburgh
|
+15.7 | 136.9 | 92% | 81–56 | ✗ |
Florida State
@
UCF
|
+16.9 | 164.5 | 94% | 54–68 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
South Carolina
|
+11.2 | 151.7 | 85% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Wisconsin
|
+5.9 | 148.2 | 70% | 50–60 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Akron
|
-4.9 | 138.0 | 33% | 73–54 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
Arkansas
|
+14.7 | 146.9 | 91% | 48–74 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Auburn
|
+20.7 | 129.8 | 97% | 59–67 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Northern Colorado
|
+3.6 | 132.5 | 63% | 77–80 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
St. Thomas
|
+23.7 | 134.2 | 98% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Xavier
|
+21.8 | 155.5 | 98% | 64–86 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Oklahoma
|
+4.6 | 129.7 | 66% | 58–66 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas A&M
|
+22.1 | 135.0 | 98% | 58–77 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
Missouri
|
+16.6 | 151.8 | 93% | 85–92 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Navy
|
+29.5 | 145.3 | 100% | 73–74 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Wake Forest
|
+13.6 | 130.4 | 89% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Arizona
|
+22.5 | 152.8 | 98% | 78–95 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Virginia
|
+18.1 | 135.6 | 95% | 42–89 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Illinois
|
+15.4 | 147.3 | 92% | 48–86 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Oregon State
|
+21.3 | 138.9 | 97% | 43–60 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
California Baptist
|
+4.4 | 139.1 | 65% | 43–59 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+3.6 | 150.4 | 63% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
DePaul
|
+1.0 | 144.4 | 54% | 74–86 | ✓ |
BYU
@
San Diego State
|
+20.8 | 132.5 | 97% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
UCLA
|
+8.5 | 137.1 | 78% | 69–93 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
Washington
|
+24.1 | 145.2 | 99% | 67–75 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Georgetown
|
+16.2 | 155.7 | 93% | 58–92 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Seton Hall
|
+17.4 | 135.5 | 94% | 44–80 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Buffalo
|
+1.4 | 162.1 | 55% | 97–62 | ✗ |
Cleveland State
@
Ohio
|
+16.8 | 136.2 | 94% | 70–81 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Louisville
|
+15.5 | 157.9 | 92% | 73–72 | ✗ |
UMass Lowell
@
Rutgers
|
+12.5 | 138.9 | 87% | 65–73 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Tulsa
|
+16.0 | 135.8 | 93% | 79–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
La Salle
|
+7.6 | 147.5 | 75% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Wichita State
|
+17.5 | 136.0 | 94% | 66–57 | ✗ |
Presbyterian
@
East Carolina
|
+9.0 | 139.5 | 79% | 57–77 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Utah Valley
|
+15.0 | 141.9 | 91% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Rhode Island
|
+12.3 | 130.8 | 87% | 70–66 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Nevada
|
+15.1 | 136.7 | 92% | 46–59 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
UNLV
|
+24.0 | 125.9 | 99% | 63–88 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
St. John's
|
+16.9 | 144.0 | 94% | 68–83 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.