Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -700 PENN +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +7 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -16.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -14.4 (-7.4) | 148.5 (+28.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -11.0 (-4.0) | 146.9 (+30.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 16-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#211) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#85) | -0.43 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#120) | -0.66 (#236) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 32.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 12.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 35.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 7.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 10.5% |
Game Analysis
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