Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -4000 LAF +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -17.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -18.1 (-3.1) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -13.5 (+1.5) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#82) | 0.3 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#104) | -0.43 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#80) | -0.60 (#206) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.9% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 33.7% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 50.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 11.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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