Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | AKR +230 MSST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +19 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -4.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.4 (-15.6) | 137.3 (-10.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.7 (-15.3) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 61.0 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#215) | 1.7 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#37) | 0.43 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#43) | 0.63 (#90) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 11.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 37.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 30.5% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 3.6% |
Game Analysis
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