Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -4000 KC +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +38 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -15.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -16.0 (+22.0) | 142.8 (-8.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.0 (+25.0) | 145.3 (-11.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#104) | 1.0 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#152) | -0.43 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#153) | -0.59 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#79) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 16.0% |
| REB / G | 53.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 50.0% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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