Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +150 JMU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +35 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -0.7 (-35.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -2.0 (-33.0) | 155.4 (+3.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -0.7 (-34.3) | 154.7 (+4.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | JMU 81 – 66 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#196) | 11.3 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#41) | 0.43 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#40) | 0.69 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#10) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.8% | 60.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 55.0% |
| REB / G | 24.0 | 52.0 |
| OREB / G | 3.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 68.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 8.8% | 41.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 38.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 87.5% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.3% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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