Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -4000 APSU +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -31.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -28.1 (-9.1) | 143.4 (-36.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -20.1 (-1.1) | 142.5 (-35.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#50) | -11.7 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#96) | -0.43 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#73) | -0.69 (#248) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 30.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 12.5% |
| REB / G | 52.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 31.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 44.4% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.7% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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