Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -2000 FOR +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +26 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -14.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -11.6 (+14.4) | 145.0 (-23.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -8.6 (+17.4) | 146.2 (-24.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#137) | 0.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#135) | 0.43 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#126) | 0.61 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#27) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 57.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 63.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 17.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 82.9% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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