I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–9 on winners spread MAE 10.6 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington State @ Boise State -10.7 136.8 16% 61–71 ✗
Morgan State @ VCU +17.1 147.3 94% 54–69 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Canisius +2.4 146.3 59% 80–84 ✓
Evansville @ Saint Louis +10.3 151.1 82% 65–83 ✓
Hartford @ Saint Francis +20.4 138.5 97% 53–77 ✓
UAlbany @ Siena +11.4 141.4 85% 62–75 ✓
Illinois State @ Northwestern State +8.1 123.0 77% 69–67 ✗
Bellarmine @ Morehead State +5.8 139.3 70% 55–62 ✓
Northeastern @ Providence +8.6 134.5 78% 65–89 ✓
UC Davis @ Loyola Marymount +0.1 152.3 51% 75–85 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC San Diego +5.5 138.9 69% 65–55 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Cincinnati +18.0 129.3 95% 69–87 ✓
Columbia @ Sacred Heart +24.7 139.5 99% 85–88 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Central Connecticut -5.8 164.3 30% 72–70 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Iowa State +33.1 153.0 100% 43–80 ✓
Colorado @ Tennessee +4.5 137.4 66% 78–66 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Central Michigan +17.3 143.4 94% 60–76 ✓
Pacific @ North Dakota State +10.0 154.7 82% 91–86 ✗
Harvard @ Elon +0.7 139.9 52% 92–77 ✗
VMI @ Davidson +24.5 154.5 99% 71–75 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi State +16.7 126.9 94% 47–80 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oakland +6.2 148.7 71% 91–62 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ St. Thomas +19.4 133.5 96% 48–84 ✓
Idaho @ Omaha +6.3 139.9 72% 72–79 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas Southern +11.5 149.7 85% 66–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Southern Indiana +5.2 149.6 68% 53–71 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Wyoming +9.6 145.7 81% 76–72 ✗
American University @ George Mason +7.1 141.9 74% 56–73 ✓
Towson @ Pennsylvania +2.5 131.6 59% 80–74 ✗
Youngstown State @ Notre Dame +5.0 160.8 68% 81–88 ✓
Louisiana @ East Tennessee State -0.7 139.9 48% 81–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Valparaiso +7.1 137.5 74% 65–81 ✓
NJIT @ San Diego +21.8 135.1 98% 64–74 ✓
Alabama State @ Pepperdine +36.4 163.7 100% 62–91 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairleigh Dickinson +19.3 149.2 96% 74–77 ✓
Brown @ Loyola Maryland +19.1 141.8 96% 70–75 ✓
Portland State @ Seattle U +17.1 161.8 94% 71–83 ✓
Lindenwood @ Missouri +14.0 155.9 90% 53–82 ✓
William & Mary @ Virginia Tech +33.6 135.7 100% 77–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.