Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -2000 NCAT +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +37 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -33.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -32.8 (+4.2) | 145.6 (-22.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -24.9 (+12.1) | 148.0 (-25.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#11) | -10.1 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#145) | -0.35 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#129) | -0.54 (#241) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 45.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 9.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.7% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 40.5% | 4.9% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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