Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -500 HART +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -21.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -10.6 (+13.4) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -10.7 (+13.3) | 140.4 (-10.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | SFPA 81 – 66 HART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 5-23 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 0-0 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#191) | -10.3 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#246) | -2.19 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#245) | -3.20 (#340) |
| RPI | — | 0.250 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 10.1% |
Game Analysis
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