Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -4000 UAPB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +33 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -16.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -12.6 (+20.4) | 130.8 (-3.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -17.5 (+15.5) | 125.7 (+1.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -11.8 (+21.2) | 130.9 (-3.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -16.3 (+16.7) | 130.2 (-3.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#39) | 2.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#24) | -1.16 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#24) | -1.41 (#305) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.250 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 46.0% |
Game Analysis
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