East Tennessee State
Buccaneers
77
–
81
FINAL
Neutral
Asheville Championship
Louisiana
Ragin' Cajuns
Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU +220 UL -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -0.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -0.1 (-3.9) | 139.7 (+18.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.0 (-4.0) | 142.6 (+15.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#83) | 4.7 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#52) | 1.06 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#49) | 1.55 (#48) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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