Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ELON +188 HARV -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +15 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -0.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -0.1 (-14.9) | 137.2 (+31.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -0.1 (-15.1) | 140.2 (+28.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-9 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#272) | -4.7 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#304) | -1.06 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#308) | -1.55 (#309) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 17.9% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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