Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -250 UCD +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -1.5 (+11.5) | 149.4 (+10.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.1 (+13.1) | 150.5 (+9.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -1.8 (+11.8) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#287) | 6.4 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#342) | 1.41 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.28 (#341) | 1.98 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#267) | 0.500 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 14.7% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 9.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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