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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
4–3 on winners
spread MAE 16.0
7 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Montana State
@
Long Beach State
|
+18.1 | 148.6 | 95% | 70–57 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Yale
|
+20.2 | 139.9 | 97% | 51–80 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+10.5 | 135.5 | 83% | 85–94 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Hawai'i
|
+11.0 | 134.8 | 84% | 51–71 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
UMBC
|
+6.7 | 154.0 | 73% | 94–64 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Boston College
|
+8.1 | 147.8 | 77% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Villanova
|
+21.9 | 143.2 | 98% | 50–60 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.